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Showing posts with label Business. Show all posts

China and India: The $10 Trillion Engine of Future U.S. Growth






My friend and colleague Michael J. Silverstein, writing in this space in late October, mentioned that the most dangerous thing about China is America’s misguided attitude toward the country. In short, we appear to be afraid of China’s success.


The U.S. has never before run from a challenge. This is the wrong time to start.






As Silverstein and his co-authors—Carol Liao, David Michael, and Abheek Singhi—point out in their new book, The $ 10 Trillion Prize, one of the reasons many Americans feel threatened by China is they don’t know a lot about the country. What they do “know,” by and large, is what they’ve been told by politicians and others who accuse China of stealing U.S. jobs.


Yes, many low-skill, low-wage U.S. jobs have moved elsewhere, in many cases to China. Yes, many low-cost, mass-produced products that used to be made here are now being made there, and in other low-cost countries, such as India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Thailand, and Vietnam. And, yes, many of those jobs will never come back.


But as China and the other developing countries grow, they also become potential customers for U.S. goods and services, from corn and soybeans to automobiles, commercial jetliners, heavy machinery, construction and farm equipment, and banking, investment, and insurance services, to name just a few.


It wasn’t that long ago that the prevailing American vision of the Middle Kingdom was that of millions of mindless peasants marching in automaton-like lockstep to the orders of the party bosses. They led lives of drudgery, on collective farms, toiling for mere survival. Everybody dressed like Chairman Mao. Dissent was met with tanks. And it wasn’t that long ago that that may have been accurate in some respects.


But China today, as Silverstein and his co-authors make clear, is a booming multiclass society with hundreds of millions of people who want nothing more than their own version of the American Dream: a nice home, a quality car, a good education for their children, appliances and conveniences, better health care, stylish clothes, more time for travel and leisure. In short: a better life for the next generation than the current generation enjoyed. The same is true in India.


The authors visited with and tell the stories of dozens of Chinese and Indian families and entrepreneurs who are striving for the same things Americans want—and for the first time in their lives, they have the money to get them.


My colleagues have calculated that between 2010 and 2020, Chinese and Indian consumers will spend some $ 64 trillion on goods and services. Chinese consumers will spend approximately $ 41.5 trillion, with annual expenditures reaching more than $ 6 trillion in 2020. Indians will spend $ 22.5 trillion, with annual spending hitting an estimated $ 3.6 trillion by 2020. Combined, they will be spending some $ 10 trillion per year by 2020—more than three times what they spent in 2010.


That’s what U.S. politicians and business leaders should be talking about: the promise of China and India as engines of future U.S. growth. That’s the prize the book is about.


China and India today show the kind of unbridled optimism that used to be the hallmark of America. Many Chinese and Indian entrepreneurs expect their companies to grow by factors of 10 over the next decade.


Rather than fear such growth, Americans should embrace it, wish them well, and make sure our businesses, farms, and factories are prepared to meet their needs.


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Our Best Photos of 2012











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Posted on December 21, 2012





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The 20 extraordinary images selected here represent the very best of this year’s photography in Bloomberg Businessweek magazine. From Platon’s arresting portrait of Apple CEO Tim Cook to photographs of tin mines in Indonesia and Bahnhof’s bunker in Sweden, our photographers have been creating beautiful, surprising and memorable images week after week, all year long. – Brent Murray


In his most wide-ranging interview since succeeding Steve Jobs, Tim Cook talks about how the company now works, the view that he’s “robotic,” and the return of Apple manufacturing to the U.S.


Read the story here.




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He’s 28, and Here to Take Over Your Company






Ryan Morris spent a week steeling himself for the showdown. Then 27 years old, he was in his first campaign as an activist investor, trying to wrest control of a small company named InfuSystem (INFU), which provides and services pumps used in chemotherapy. In the meeting, Morris would confront InfuSystem’s chairman and vice chairman, two men in their 40s, and tell them that as a shareholder, he thought the company was heading in the wrong direction.


Morris is competitive—his high school rowing teammates nicknamed him “Cyborg,” and he took a semester off college to race as a semi-pro cyclist—but face-to-face confrontation wasn’t something he relished. “I like the thrill of the hunt, but not the kill,” he says. To prepare, Morris outlined questions, guessed potential responses, and tried to anticipate what tense “pregnant moments” could arrive. He built his clout by lining up support from InfuSystem’s largest shareholder as well as a veteran activist investor. Morris knew his own looks—he resembles a sandy-haired Mitt Romney—could help mask his youth, and decided he’d wear a tie, much as he hates to.






The company, with just $ 47 million in revenue, was spending too much money, and in the wrong places. In the previous year, InfuSystem’s board and CEO earned more than $ 11 million combined. This was for a company whose stock had lost 40 percent of its value over the previous three years. Morris figured that as a shareholder voice on the board, he could help cut expenses—including the high pay—and, once it was clean enough to sell, reap a return for his own small hedge fund.


On Dec. 13, 2011, he finally sat at a conference table across from the two directors. After 45 minutes of discussion, he still didn’t think his concerns were being acknowledged. So he got to the point: He wanted three board seats.


When an activist investor like Carl Icahn tries to take over a household brand, it plays out on CNBC. Most shareholder struggles occur when little-known investment funds try to take over little-known companies like InfuSystem. Of the more than two dozen activist battles in 2012, most involved companies with a market value under $ 50 million. In the smallest face-off this year, Georgetown Law student Daniel Rudewicz, 29, tried and failed to gain control of a $ 2.2 million company that makes microwave filters.


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Many of the fights are being waged by a younger generation of activists, according to Ron Berenblat, Morris’s attorney at Olshan Frome Wolosky. Among the firm’s clients is a 24-year-old about to start his first activist campaign, trying to take over a technology company. Morris’s experience, says Berenblat, puts him “on the new forefront of 30-and-younger activist investors who are ​intelligent, patient, and highly methodical.” After the financial crisis exhausted even the most seasoned investors, young activists like Morris are bringing new energy to the hunt, shining light into dark corners of the market that are often overlooked.
 
 
Growing up in Toronto, Morris dreamed of becoming a nuclear physicist, obsessed with the idea that nuclear fusion could create infinite, clean energy—that was, until his father let him in on some bad news. “Even if you become the best scientist in the world, you will not make fusion happen,” Ryan recalls him warning. “If you want to make something happen, you need to be in charge of capital. It’s the resource allocation that gets things done.”


Morris started reading Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A) shareholder letters. To the 12-year-old Morris, it seemed so easy: With hard work and a clear mind, an independent thinker could spot an undervalued company, buy it cheap, and hold on until other investors recognize the company’s true worth. “Something where you can do well while being a loner was kind of appealing,” he says.


Using money from a summer job laying lawn sprinklers, Morris soon bought his first stock, a company that made fuel cells. He kept investing when he moved to upstate New York to study operations research at Cornell University and later as he extended his undergraduate degree into a master’s in engineering. Alongside classes and cycling, Morris worked with fellow student Paul George to found a profitable company called VideoNote that made it easy for Cornell to stream lectures online. As graduation loomed, Morris decided he didn’t want to take a job on Wall Street, where he could earn millions in the algorithm-driven world of quantitative finance. The financial models that drive the market’s split-second trades were “dumb” in Morris’s eyes, George says. “His whole position is take long-term positions on companies and don’t try to trade on noise. You can’t predict anything.”


He still wanted to be an investor, though. In the fall of 2008, with the stock market in freefall, and lots of companies at historic lows, Morris saw an opportunity. By early 2009 he was talking with George about managing his money, with a compelling pitch: “He said, ‘Cast aside your emotions. … People are overreacting, so I can come in and be rational,’ ” George recalls. George handed over some of their payout from VideoNote and a small inheritance, becoming Morris’s first investor. With their combined $ 50,000, Morris opened his fund on Feb. 24, 2009, naming it Meson Capital Partners after a subatomic particle. His timing was perfect: The stock market bottomed in March and has more than doubled since.


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Over the coming months, Morris sent some close friends and professors a 10-page letter detailing his value approach, which embodied Buffett’s idea of investing in companies that have strong business prospects and are not simply hot stocks. A few gave him money, and a single question Morris asked of Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charlie Munger at Wesco Financial’s annual meeting helped him pull in more. He asked whether it’s harder to pursue a “buy and hold” strategy when businesses seem to evolve faster and faster. Ben Claremon, a blogger who circulated a transcript of the meeting, noted next to Morris’s name: “Watch out for this guy: Some very smart people think he is going to be a star fund manager.”


Morris didn’t start out as an activist. At first he looked for sound companies that had been swept up in the market panic and noticed that some small aircraft leasing companies had taken a beating. “If you think of a headline for an investment that involves ‘airlines’ and ‘finance’ you can imagine there was not much competition in buying these stocks,” Morris would write to investors. He invested about 40 percent of his fund in three companies and the stocks soared. By the end of the year, Morris’s fund had gained 753 percent before fees—17 times the return of the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index. In his first annual letter, he told his investors this was “embarrassingly far off our target” of beating the S&P by 10 percent annually over three to five years. “This was not a sustainable performance.”


The returns attracted great interest, some of which Morris calls “the wrong kind of attention.” One potential investor asked, “OK, I will get 50 percent a year, right?” Morris says he turned away several of these hot money types. His letters, which laid out his strategies, started making the rounds among well-known value investors and eventually landed in the hands of Whitney Tilson, founder of hedge fund T2 Partners. “There’s this young guy who looks off the beaten path for interesting, misplaced situations,” Tilson says. And those returns? “That catches anyone’s eye.” In 2010, Tilson and Zeke Ashton, founder of Centaur Capital Partners, became seed investors in Morris’s partnership, providing a bit of capital and a regular source of advice.


Morris’s second year didn’t match his first. In the words of his next annual letter, it was “marked by frustration and underperformance.” There were some bright spots when he “coat tailed” the work of other activist investors. One forced a bloated pharmaceutical company to sell itself, and another managed to wring some money for shareholders out of an industrial laser business reorganizing in bankruptcy. Reflecting on the year, Morris told his investors that the success of those activists made him optimistic about his own future, writing, “Hopefully, as we grow in the future, we can be the ones to save the day.”
 
 
“Why did he become an activist investor? Because he got screwed,” George says. In early 2011, Morris invested in a hearing aid provider called HearUSA, which he thought was undervalued after it signed a long-delayed deal with AARP. Then HearUSA’s largest supplier, Siemens (SI), forced the company to file for bankruptcy protection over a contract dispute. Morris says he was caught totally off guard—he’d seen no warning signs in the hundreds of pages of filings he’d read—and sold 80 percent of his shares at a loss.


After reading more documents from the case, Morris decided that HearUSA’s business was sound and that Siemens acted because it was at odds with the company’s management. As HearUSA’s stock fell in the wake of the bankruptcy filing, Morris began buying shares, paying on average a third of what he paid for his original stake. He then joined other investors in persuading the bankruptcy trustee to establish an equity committee to represent shareholders. Morris and the rest of the committee helped negotiate a deal for Siemens to buy HearUSA, avoiding liquidation and doubling Meson’s total investment.


As that foray ended, a HearUSA shareholder tipped Morris off to InfuSystem. The company had a steady, recurring revenue stream. After all, “cancer treatment services are totally economically insensitive,” says Morris. “If Europe crashes, you still need this service.” But that cash flow was obscured by what Morris politely calls “nonessential costs.” In 2010 the board awarded $ 7.2 million in salary, stock, and other compensation to Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Sean McDevitt, gave $ 1.3 million to Vice Chairman Pat LaVecchia, and awarded at least $ 400,000 to almost every other member of the board, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings. It let the stock awards vest immediately and had InfuSystem pay the personal income taxes they triggered. That meant InfuSystem’s board earned six times the median compensation for other micro-cap companies, according to data from the National Association of Corporate Directors. Reading the filings, Morris questioned how the board, which included pharmaceutical executives and an astronaut, could approve the largess. “These don’t seem like bad people,” he thought. (Members of the board did not respond to requests for comment for this article.)


Fresh off his experience with HearUSA, Morris thought if he could get a voice on the board, he could help investors. He says he called the largest shareholders and learned they were irked too. That’s when Morris began laying the groundwork for battle. He bought 2 percent of InfuSystem’s shares and persuaded Kleinheinz Capital Partners, the company’s largest shareholder, and veteran small-cap activist Chuck Gillman to join him in an official group of concerned shareholders. On Dec. 6, 2011, Morris filed a form called a Schedule 13D with the SEC, declaring the group controlled 11.4 percent of InfuSystem’s shares and intended to influence the board.


In the face-to-face meeting a week later, Morris says McDevitt and LaVecchia defended the stock awards, explaining that the board wanted to boost the company’s market capitalization so it could move from trading on over-the-counter exchanges to the NYSE Amex. Morris says that when he raised the prospect of joining the board, McDevitt’s face reddened as he sarcastically retorted, “Oh, we’d love to spend more time with you.”


Five days later, Morris learned the board rejected the shareholders’ request for three seats. He scoured InfuSystem’s bylaws and decided to demand a “special meeting,” which management must call within 75 days after a majority of all shareholders demand one. Morris was confident he could get the support he needed, and on Jan. 18, 2012, filed a preliminary proxy statement calling for the special meeting to replace the board.


This is about the time when many shareholder activists would start firing off nasty press releases attacking current management as corrupt or incompetent in an effort to rally shareholder support. Such battles can escalate quickly and end up in court. Morris says, “as much as I love lawyers, I don’t really love paying them.” Instead, he issued what he calls “gentlemanly” press releases that announced his SEC filings.


When Morris called shareholders, some said, “Thank God you’re here.” Others were skeptical. How did they know that Morris wouldn’t raid the company for himself? “I was like, ‘I’m 27. I would be ending my career right now if I was going to do that,’ ” he recalls. By March 5, Morris’s group had more than the 50 percent support needed. The InfuSystem board now had until May 7 to call the special meeting.


McDevitt and the board began negotiating. In the final deal, McDevitt, LaVecchia, and all but two of the board members were out. “I fired an astronaut,” Morris says now with a slight smile. McDevitt waived the 2 million shares he was entitled to under his employment contract and instead took a $ 1 million payout. “If we had had nasty press releases, there’s no way we would have settled that severance thing,” Morris says. InfuSystem would get a new CEO and seven new board members, with Morris as the chairman, one of the youngest on the NYSE. “I am two months younger than Zuckerberg,” he says. “But he’s about a zillion dollars richer.”
 
 
On a November afternoon in Manhattan, Morris sat at a desk stacked with moving boxes and explained that he was closing InfuSystem’s New York office. InfuSystem had leased the office for McDevitt and a team of financial analysts to use as they looked for other biotech firms to buy. “They had these investment bankers to make acquisitions, but we don’t have capital to do acquisitions,” Morris says.


After the takeover, Morris and the board laid off the New York staff and sublet the midtown office space, saving InfuSystem about $ 1 million a year, Morris estimates. When he visits New York, Morris crashes on George’s couch rather than charge the company for a hotel. These cost-cutting moves helped InfuSystem post its first quarterly profit since 2010 in November. Yet Morris has more work to do—shares are still down since he bought them.


Morris now spends about a third of his time on InfuSystem and the rest on other investments. Knowing he’s not likely to see another market like 2009, he views activism as a way to get a persistent advantage in normal times. “I think now he is struggling to say, How do I apply this? What will allow me to be my own catalyst and allow me to find another edge?” says Ashton. “Not in terms of size of return, but where I have an edge that is somewhat durable.” Chris Cernich, executive director for proxy contest research at Institutional Shareholder Services, has found that companies with an activist investor on the board typically outperform their peer groups by 16.6 percentage points. But activism, with its patience and strategizing and expense, isn’t for most people, and the battles don’t always end well.


In August, Morris saw a different activism project fall apart. He’d tried to take over Pinnacle Airlines, a regional carrier, which later fell into bankruptcy. After a judge denied Morris’s requests for more shareholder input, Morris decided it wasn’t worth appealing the ruling. “Investing isn’t a crusade, it’s about making money,” he says. Pinnacle became the 28-year-old’s biggest loss to date.


Around the same time, a friend who runs another small hedge fund tipped Morris off to Lucas Energy (LEI), a small energy producer with rights to drill on oil-rich properties but not enough capital to get the crude out of the ground. It also had a CEO and co-founder who was “not a great communicator,” Morris says. “I’m being polite here.” After acquiring 11 percent of the company’s shares, Morris flew to Texas to meet the CEO and chairman. He headed back the next day with an invitation to have two seats on the board, with no strings attached. Within three weeks, he and the rest of the board brought on a new CFO, and in December they replaced the CEO.


Morris says he’s getting used to the ups and downs that are part of long-term investing. He works out of a two-bedroom apartment in San Francisco he shares with his “really supportive fiancĂ©,” a blonde Belarussian he met at a coffee shop in Santa Monica. “So that keeps me sane,” he says. Plus: “My investors are very patient with me. I’m very grateful.” Morris now has 33 investors and about $ 15 million under management.


His long-term plan is to “cut my teeth with these small ones that I fix up and sell, and then you can start doing more interesting strategic stuff once you get bigger.” Eventually, he wants to merge companies, change operations, and make the big plays. But to get there, Morris needs more money, and more experience sitting across the table from executives and demanding a seat on a board. It may require a new tie.


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The Most Powerful Woman in Finance







Those who know her describe Abigail Johnson as steely and extremely serious, qualities that come across in photographs: Whippet-thin, she’s almost always wearing glasses, her fine features and blue eyes rarely revealing more than a slight smile. An heiress to a Boston family fortune—with a personal net worth estimated by the Bloomberg Billionaires index at $ 10 billion—she’s one of the world’s richest women. She’s also one of the most driven and hardworking. In her 24 years at Fidelity Investments, the mutual fund company founded by her grandfather, Johnson worked through two pregnancies and, according to press reports, a serious illness in 2007 that she never discussed with her colleagues.


Through a spokesman, Johnson declined to comment for this piece. Silence has been her mode for years. She even said little when she was named president of Fidelity Investments Financial Services in August, making her second in command at the $ 3.8 trillion mutual fund company, the nation’s second largest. She reports to her father, Fidelity Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Edward “Ned” Johnson III, and her elevation to the No. 2 position arguably makes Abby—nobody calls her Abigail—the most powerful woman in finance.






With her ascension, Johnson, 51, has become the leading member of what today is still a very small club. In the financial world, only a handful of women have reached the top ranks. They include Sallie Krawchek, former president of Bank of America’s (BAC) investment management division, who has been discussed as a possible candidate for the chair of the SEC; Ina Drew, JPMorgan Chase’s (JPM) former chief investment officer, who resigned in May after the bank suffered a $ 6.2 billion trading loss; and Mellody Hobson, president of Ariel Investments, the $ 3 billion Chicago-based money management firm.


Johnson joins this group as Fidelity faces some of the biggest threats in its 66-year history. Fidelity still churns out big profits; it racked up operating income of $ 3.3 billion in 2011 on revenue of $ 12.8 billion, primarily from brokerage commissions and fees in its asset management, investment advisory, and record-keeping businesses. But Fidelity is no longer the largest mutual fund company in the country based on assets under management. It lost that position to Vanguard in 2010. And its target customers are increasingly moving away from actively managed stock funds—long Fidelity’s signature product—and into passive stock funds and more conservative fixed-income funds.


To fix the family business, Johnson can rely on input and guidance from a large team of executives, including her formidable father, now 82, who took the small Boston investment firm founded in 1946 by his father, Edward Johnson II, and turned it into a colossus. On at least one issue, though, she’ll likely be operating alone. Financial firms, particularly in wealth management, often prosper with a personal touch. Think Charles Schwab or John Bogle at Vanguard. A woman atop the company—guiding strategy in the boardroom and delivering the message on TV—could attract a raft of new customers. The question is: Does Abby Johnson want to be that woman?


Born in 1961, Johnson is the eldest of Ned and Elizabeth “Lillie” Johnson’s three children. Raised on Boston’s North Shore, she had a classic Boston Brahmin upbringing, attending the tony Buckingham Browne & Nichols school in Cambridge, summering at the family estate in Maine, and majoring in art history at Hobart and William Smith Colleges. Despite the family’s fortune, estimated at about $ 22 billion today, she grew up with a flinty distaste for public displays of wealth, working as a waitress one summer, answering customer service calls at Fidelity during another. The Johnsons were rarely in the newspapers; even today, Ned can walk down the street in Boston unrecognized, says John Bonnanzio, the editor of Fidelity Monitor & Insight, an investment newsletter.


After graduating from college in 1984, Johnson went to work not at Fidelity, but as an associate at the management consultant Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH). She went to Harvard to get her MBA, graduated in 1988, and was married that summer to Christopher McKown, a health-care entrepreneur she’d met when they both worked at Booz. They moved into the home they live in today with their two teenage daughters in the Boston suburb of Milton. The seven-bedroom house on a wooded 5.6-acre estate belonged to her grandfather.


Abby went to work for Fidelity shortly after her marriage, beginning a rigorous and long-running apprenticeship. She started as a stock analyst and then became a portfolio manager. From 1988 to 1997, she worked at six different funds and clocked in as one of Fidelity’s top managers in the first six months of 1995, with 25.2 percent returns on Fidelity’s $ 1.9 billion OTC Portfolio (FOCPX).


Johnson moved out of portfolio management in 1997 and into Fidelity’s middle-executive ranks. During the next 14 years, she worked in virtually every key area of the company, running its equity information technology systems, the equity division, and its immense, now $ 1.5 trillion mutual fund operation. She also ran Fidelity’s vast retirement and benefits administration business, the area that includes Fidelity’s 401(k) division.


In the process, Johnson gained respect for her mastery of technology and management processes, says Ronald O’Hanley, Fidelity Investments’ president of Asset Management and Corporate Services, who adds that “she is really driven by things that others might find exhausting or even uninteresting.” And by an almost obsessive focus on the needs of Fidelity’s customers, “even if it’s not the best thing, from the point of view of our bottom line,” he says.


Soft-spoken and understated, she became known as a manager with a collaborative style, more in the mold of her collegial grandfather than her brusque father. “She is very much a person who encourages debate and discussion,” says O’Hanley. “She doesn’t lead by fiat or by raising her voice or by asserting that she is the smartest person in the room.”


By 2007, Johnson had climbed to the senior-most executive ranks. In August of that year, Fortune reported she had lost weight and that so much of her hair had fallen out that she was wearing a wig. Inside Fidelity and in the media there was speculation that she had cancer; it was never openly discussed at the company, which refused to comment publicly. Throughout this period, Johnson rarely missed a day of work.


Over the years, other executives who might have run the company have left one by one. Robert Pozen, the mutual fund chief, departed in 2001. In 2007, Ellyn McColgan, who’d helped build Fidelity’s brokerage system and who was a rival for the top job, left, as did Robert Reynolds, the company’s chief operating officer and now president and CEO of Putnam Investments.


Among her biggest challenges, according to analysts, is repairing the hit Fidelity has taken to its market share. Since the end of 2008, Vanguard’s stock and bond mutual funds have attracted $ 274 billion from investors, according to Lipper Analytical Services, compared with $ 52 billion for Fidelity. The company was particularly bruised by the huge market drops from the dot-com bust and the 2008 meltdown, which sent investors fleeing managed funds for such lower-cost vehicles as index and exchange-traded funds.


Fidelity almost completely dropped the ball in developing ETFs, fearing they would cannibalize its managed funds. Despite the thin profit margins on ETFs for fund companies, says Bonnanzio, Fidelity’s decision not to move aggressively into the $ 1.8 trillion market “was a mistake.”


Fidelity’s O’Hanley questions the emphasis on market share. The company, he says, does not just focus on assets under management, now at $ 1.6 trillion, but also on its assets under administration—funds it holds for its customers but does not direct—which account for another $ 2.2 trillion. This includes non-Fidelity products like mutual funds and ETFs of other firms, such as BlackRock (BLK), which Fidelity sells on its “open architecture” platform. Still, Fidelity may be playing catch-up. This month it filed an application with the SEC for permission to introduce ETFs that would be run by Fidelity’s active stockpickers.


The issue is not that Fidelity lacks good products, it’s that the firm hasn’t done as well as it needs to in marketing itself, says James Lowell III, chief investment officer of Adviser Investments and editor of Fidelity Investor, an independent newsletter. “Where they have failed utterly is to attract inflows,” says Lowell. “That’s where they’re getting smoked by literally inferior products, even high-priced products. Fidelity’s indexed funds are lower priced than Vanguard’s, and yet Vanguard continues to be able to convince investors that it’s got the low-priced product,” he says. Fidelity has “the product. They have excellent service, they have an excellent platform, they have an excellent understanding of their business. They just need to let people know about it.” With Abby Johnson at the helm, he says, it’s the perfect moment for Fidelity to revitalize its image.


Here Johnson, who possesses many of the qualities of a public leader, could step in. Lowell is betting that, like Schwab and Bogle, Johnson will rise to the challenge. She has started to be comfortable making speeches and appearing at large events. “She has got to do a better job of being a little bit more public,” he says. “Replacing one CEO with a very dynamic, committed CEO—and in this case gender matters—that is your moment to rebrand. And she knows it.”


Fidelity has said Ned Johnson has no plans to retire, making it hard to predict how long his lion-in-winter phase will last. It won’t last forever. In April, the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce dinner honored the Johnson family for their contribution to the city. It was a rare public appearance for Ned Johnson, who looked frail. Abby, dressed in a simply tailored silvery blue suit, stepped to the podium, adjusted her glasses, and began to speak on behalf of her family. “On some level, the curtain was closing,” says Bonnanzio.


“I think it’s been difficult to give Abigail her due,” he says, “difficult for her to really make her mark, given that she has always been in the shadows of her father. It’s going to be fascinating when her father leaves the stage.”



Andrews is a Bloomberg Businessweek contributor.


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TSX may open higher on “fiscal cliff” hopes






(Reuters) – Toronto’s main stock index looked set to open higher on Tuesday, tracking global markets, fueled by expectation that U.S. lawmakers might reach an agreement to avoid looming tax increases and spending cuts that threaten to hurt the world’s biggest economy.


TOP STORIES






* The differences over how to resolve the “fiscal cliff” narrowed significantly Monday night as President Barack Obama made a counter-offer to Republicans that included a major change in position on tax hikes for the wealthy, according to a source familiar with the talks.


* Knight Capital Group’s board was split between two competing offers for the firm after a meeting on Monday where suitors Getco Holding Company LLC and Virtu Financial LLC presented their sweetened bids to Knight’s directors, sources involved in the talks said.


* British inflation defied forecasts in November to hold at its highest rate since May, reducing the scope for the Bank of England to inject more cash into the struggling economy.


* Germany’s government is considering cutting its forecast for growth in Europe’s largest economy next year from its current estimate of 1 percent due to a weak half year over the winter, Deputy Economy Minister Bernhard Heitzer told Reuters.


MARKET SNAPSHOT


* Canada stock futures traded up 0.26 percent


* U.S. stock futures,, were up around 0.40 percent <.n></.n>


* European shares <.fteu3>, <.stoxx> were up <.eu></.eu></.stoxx></.fteu3>


COMMODITY PRICE MOVES


* Thomson Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index <.trjcrbtr>: 295.92; was up 0.13 percent</.trjcrbtr>


* Gold Futures: $ 1,699.3; up 0.06 percent


* US Crude: $ 87.70; up 0.54 percent


* Brent Crude: $ 108.23; up 0.55 percent


* LME 3-month Copper: $ 8,028.25; fell -0.43 percent


ANALYST RECOMMENDATIONS


Following is a summary of research actions on Canadian companies reported by Reuters.


* AuRico Gold Inc. : BMO resumes coverage with market perform rating, raises price target to C$ 9.50 from C$ 9, after the company completed the sale of its Ocampo project and announced a share buyback program


* First Majestic Silver : Raymond James cuts target price to C$ 26 from C$ 26.75 after the company said it would acquire Orko Silver Corp in a share and cash deal worth C$ 345 million


* Kirkland Lake Gold Inc. : CIBC cuts target to C$ 9 from C$ 15 citing the challenges at the company’s Macassa operations and its greater-than-expected outlook cuts


* Primero Mining Corp.


: RBC cuts target to $ 8.50 from $ 9 after the company said it would acquire Cerro Resources, giving it an element of growth in 2015


* Sun Life Financial Inc. : Canaccord Genuity cuts to sell rating on valuation while CIBC ups target to C$ 26 from C$ 25 after the company said it would sell its U.S. annuities business for $ 1.35 billion


ON THE CALENDAR


* No Major Canadian economic data scheduled for release


* Major U.S. events and data includes Redbook, NAHB index and SEMI book/bill


(Reporting by Kishan Nair)


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UBS faces $1 billion fine for Libor rigging: source


LONDON (Reuters) - Swiss bank UBS is expected to pay about $1 billion to settle charges of rigging the Libor interest rate benchmark, according to a person familiar with the situation, making it the second major bank to be officially ensnared by the global scandal.

The announcement could come as early as Monday, this person said.

Such a penalty, more than double the $450 million fine levied on British bank Barclays in June for related conduct, indicates the scope of the misconduct by UBS could dwarf that exposed by Barclays' settlement.

Barclays in June admitted it improperly took trading positions into account when reporting interest rates used to calculate the Libor benchmark, touching off a firestorm that forced its chairman and chief executive to quit.

The settlement also prompted a political and public backlash against standards in banking across Europe and the United States.

The Libor benchmarks are used for trillions of dollars worth of loans around the world. Tiny shifts in the rate, compiled from daily polls of bankers, could benefit dealers in complex products.

While details in the Barclays settlement showed traders brazenly gaming the system, the expected size of the UBS settlement indicates that Barclays may prove to be far from the worst offender and that other settlements may also be larger than Barclays'. Overall, more than a dozen banks have been caught in the international inquiry.

UBS declined to comment. The agencies expected to be involved in the settlement, including Britain's Financial Services Authority and the U.S. Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission all declined to comment.

UBS has said it set aside 6.5 billion swiss francs ($7.04 billion) in reserves, but has not broken out how those funds are earmarked.

CONDITIONAL LENIENCY

The steep fine that UBS has agreed to pay is a surprise because the bank, since 2011, has cooperated with law-enforcement agencies in their probes, according to regulatory filings and court documents.

The bank disclosed it received conditional immunity from the Justice Department's antitrust division and other international competition authorities, which suggests the bank's $1 billion payout could have been higher without that leniency.

Some clues to UBS's alleged central role in the Libor conspiracy were included in documents filed earlier this year by the Canadian Competition Bureau, which investigates anti-competitive activity.

The documents describe how a "cooperating party" tried to artificially move yen Libor. UBS is the cooperating bank, people familiar with the situation have said.

Those documents allege that a trader at the bank — called "Trader A" - contacted traders at four other banks. On one occasion, "Trader A" instructed a trader at another bank on what Libor submission to make.

It is unclear if UBS will resolve the Canadian probe as part of the imminent settlement.

Authorities are also investigating the actions of individuals. This week British police and anti-fraud officers made the first arrests in connection to the Libor probe, detaining a former trader and two other men, sources said.

One of those arrested was former UBS and Citigroup trader Thomas Hayes, according to a source familiar with the situation. The two others worked at interdealer broker RP Martin, according to a separate source.

TORRID TIME FOR UBS

The fine will mark another blow to UBS, which has had a tough 18 months after suffering a $2.3-billion loss in a rogue trading scandal, management upheaval and thousands of job cuts.

"I'm not sure how much more reputational damage can be done to UBS," said Chris Wheeler, analyst at Mediobanca in London. "They are rebuilding that slowly, but it won't help the wealth management business when you see this as a headline."

Banks are keen to put such fines behind them as they attempt to rebuild credibility among politicians, the general public and investors following the financial crisis which forced taxpayers to bail out the banking system.

But the fresh spate of probes and settlements are putting banks' malpractice back to the forefront.

HSBC on Tuesday reached a $1.92 billion settlement with U.S. authorities over money laundering, the highest ever fine on a bank, a day after another London-based bank, Standard Chartered , agreed to pay $327 million for violating U.S. sanctions against Iran, Sudan and other states, adding to an earlier $340 million it paid in a related case.

Deutsche Bank , Germany's flagship lender, was raided on Wednesday by about 500 German tax inspectors and police, who arrested five staff in a probe linked to a tax scam involving the trading of carbon permits.

Britain's Royal Bank of Scotland is also expected to reach a settlement on Libor manipulation shortly.

Investigators are assessing whether banks used responses to the daily survey of the rates they would offer to other banks to try to nudge Libor, perhaps by only a few hundredths of a percentage point. Such a move could still benefit their own trades in bonds or more complex deals linked to that rate.

Banks found guilty also face civil lawsuits from those they traded with. Some borrowers complain they paid more interest than they should have, although others may have paid less.

Reuters' parent company Thomson Reuters Corp collects information from banks and uses it to calculate Libor rates according to specifications drawn up by the British Bankers Association (BBA).

(Additional reporting by Steve Slater in London, Martin de Sa'Pinto in Zurich and Aruna Viswanatha in Washington and Carrick Mollenkamp in New York; Editing by Alexander Smith, Alastair Macdonald and Andrew Hay)

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