Markets steady amid Xmas exodus, US budget doubts

LONDON (AP) — Financial markets were largely steady in holiday-thinned trading Monday though concerns remain over the progress of U.S. budget discussions and the future of the economic reform program in Italy.

For weeks, the discussions between the White House and Congress over a budget deal have been the main driver in markets. If a deal isn’t agreed to by the start of 2013, automatic spending cuts and tax increases worth hundreds of billions of dollars will be imposed — which many economists think could push the U.S. economy back into recession.

The prevailing view has been that a deal would be agreed to in time but as the deadline nears there are growing doubts over whether the U.S. will be able to avoid the so-called “fiscal cliff.”

“The reality is given that the U.S. government is now closed for the holiday break the likelihood of anything other than soothing procrastination is highly unlikely much before the Jan. 1 deadline,” said Michael Hewson, senior market analyst at CMC Markets.

Most markets across Europe were only open for half a day and will only re-open again on Thursday. German markets, and others, were closed for Christmas Eve.

Among those that were open, Britain’s FTSE 100 index of leading British shares closed up 0.2 percent at 5,954.18 while the CAC-40 in France was down an equivalent rate at 3,652.61.

Wall Street was poised for falls at the open in what will also be a holiday-shortened trading day — both Dow futures and the broader S&P 500 futures were down 0.3 percent.

Doubts over the progress of discussions prompted a fairly sizeable sell-off last Friday though many analysts still think there will be agreement on some sort of short-term measures.

“Even if this stopgap measure is implemented it may not be enough to prevent unwanted volatility in equity markets going into 2013 as investors try and assess the adverse impact on the U.S. economy,” said Neil MacKinnon, global macro strategist at VTB Capital.

As well as monitoring developments in the U.S. over the coming days, investors will be keeping a close watch on what’s going on in Italy ahead of a general election in February.

Over the weekend, outgoing Prime Minister Mario Monti indicated that he would be willing to return to the role if pro-reform parties back him.

Over the past year or so, Monti and his technocratic government have won plaudits in the markets for their economic reforms and efforts to get a grip on the country’s borrowing. Italy has the second-highest debt burden among the 17 EU countries that use the euro. Only Greece’s is higher.

Earlier in Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, closed up 0.1 percent at 22,531.51 while South Korea’s Kospi rose less than 0.1 percent to 1,981.82. Japanese markets were closed for the Emperor’s birthday holiday.

Other financial markets were subdued too. In the currency markets, the euro was up 0.2 percent at $ 1.3224 while the benchmark New York oil price was down 16 cents at $ 88.50 a barrel.

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1ST Constitution Bancorp Declares a 5 Percent Stock Dividend

CRANBURY, NJ–(Marketwire – Dec 24, 2012) – 1^ST Constitution Bancorp’s ( NASDAQ : FCCY ) Board of Directors has declared a 5 percent stock dividend to shareholders of record as of the close of business on January 14, 2013, payable January 31, 2013. Robert F. Mangano, President and Chief Executive Officer said that this action represents the twenty-first consecutive year that a stock dividend has been paid by 1^ST Constitution.

1^ST Constitution Bancorp, through its primary subsidiary, 1^ST Constitution Bank, operates fourteen branch banking offices in Cranbury (2), Fort Lee, Hamilton, Hightstown, Hillsborough, Hopewell, Jamesburg, Lawrenceville, Perth Amboy, Plainsboro, Rocky Hill, West Windsor and Princeton, New Jersey.

1^ST Constitution Bancorp common stock is traded on the Nasdaq Global Market under the trading symbol “FCCY”. Information about 1^ST Constitution Bancorp can be accessed via the Internet at www.1STCONSTITUTION.com.

The foregoing contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are not historical facts and include expressions about management’s confidence and strategies and management’s expectations about new and existing programs and products, relationships, opportunities, taxation, technology and market conditions. These statements may be identified by such forward-looking terminology as “expect,” “look,” “believe,” “anticipate,” “may,” “will,” or similar statements or variations of such terms. Actual results may differ materially from such forward-looking statements. Factors that may cause results to differ materially from such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, changes in the direction of the economy in New Jersey, the direction of interest rates, effective income tax rates, loan prepayment assumptions, continued levels of loan quality and origination volume, continued relationships with major customers including sources for loans, a higher level of net loan charge-offs and delinquencies than anticipated, bank regulatory rules, regulations or policies that restrict or direct certain actions, the adoption, interpretation and implementation of new or pre-existing accounting pronouncements, a change in legal and regulatory barriers including issues related to compliance with anti-money laundering and bank secrecy act laws, as well as the effects of general economic conditions and legal and regulatory barriers and structure. 1^ST Constitution Bancorp assumes no obligation for updating any such forward-looking statements at any time, except as required by law.

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Wall Street edges lower in thin trade

SOUTH WAZIRISTAN, Pakistan (Reuters) - This Christmas, pastor Nazir Alam will stoke up a fire, lay a fresh cloth on the altar and welcome parishioners as they arrive at his church in Waziristan, a Pakistani tribal area known as an al-Qaeda haven. "The lights are all up, and the choir boys are ready. The church is looking its best," said 60-year-old Alam, a former missionary who has celebrated his last ten Christmases there. "There's not much left to do but to pray and rejoice." Outsiders might see little cause for joy. ...

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Seahawks roll past 49ers in noisy Seattle 42-13

SEATTLE (AP) — Red Bryant remembers the early years of his career, when the Seattle Seahawks struggled to win only four and five games in his first two seasons.

Getting a 10th win on Sunday night and a trip to the postseason was special to the Seahawks' big defensive end.

"Who has been playing better than us the last few weeks?" Bryant questioned. "This is the National Football League and you don't get any gimmies. We work hard to win. ... It's hard to win in this league."

Russell Wilson threw a career-high four touchdown passes to move into second place for most TD passes by a rookie, Marshawn Lynch scored two first-quarter TDs, and the Seahawks routed the San Francisco 49ers 42-13.

Richard Sherman returned Bryant's blocked field goal 90 yards for another touchdown as the Seahawks (10-5) jumped to a 21-0 lead. That only added to an already hyped crowd on a typically cold and rainy December night, with noise echoing off the walls and overhanging roof of CenturyLink Field that might have been heard all the way across Puget Sound.

No one appeared to care about the weather, not with the performance they were seeing on the field. And not with a ticket to the postseason guaranteed thanks to Seattle's first 10-win season since 2007.

"We knew we were capable of doing this. We had no doubt. Even in Week 1, we knew that we had the talent to do what we're doing now," said wide receiver Doug Baldwin, who had two touchdown receptions. "It took time because we're a young team. We had to mature. We had to grow together, build that chemistry, build that trust out there on the field. That's the most important thing."

Seattle surged into the playoffs on the strength of its sixth win in seven games, putting up dizzying offensive numbers that no one thought would continue against the top scoring defense in the NFL but did.

Seattle has outscored its last three opponents 150-30. The 42 points were the most allowed since Jim Harbaugh took over the 49ers, and the most San Francisco yielded since giving up 45 to Atlanta in 2009. It was the perfect way for Seattle coach Pete Carroll to snap a three-game losing streak against his rival.

"We just try to play really good football and see what happens at the end," Carroll said. "We have been scoring and doing a nice job of it and it would be great If we can keep it rolling."

Seattle will likely be the No. 5 seed in the NFC. There remains a slight chance of winning the NFC West, if the Seahawks beat St. Louis in the season finale and Arizona can upset the 49ers in San Francisco.

The Seahawks, 7-0 at home, delayed San Francisco (10-4-1) from celebrating a division title. They turned Harbaugh's 49th birthday into a miserable evening.

"If you had told me this would be the outcome I wouldn't have believed it," Sherman said. "I would say you're making this up."

Wilson hit Lynch on a 9-yard TD in the first quarter, Anthony McCoy for a 6-yarder late in the first half, and Doug Baldwin on 4 and 6 yard TDs in the second half.

Wilson has 25 TD passes, one behind Peyton Manning's NFL rookie record of 26. He finished 15 of 21 for 171 yards. His only incompletion in the first half was a deflected pass that Patrick Willis intercepted.

Wilson's counterpart, San Francisco's Colin Kaepernick, had already proven himself capable of winning on the road with victories in New Orleans and last week in New England. But Seattle is a different beast, widely regarded by players as the loudest venue in the NFL. His inexperience playing in such an environment showed. He was flustered and disorganized at the line of scrimmage, letting the noise from Seattle's fans affect him.

Kaepernick's forgettable night was capped when Sherman stepped in front of his pass intended for Randy Moss at the back of the end zone on the first play of the fourth quarter for his seventh interception of the season.

Kaepernick was 19 of 36 for 244 yards with an 18-yard TD pass to Delanie Walker with 1:40 left. Frank Gore had just 28 yards on six carries after rushing for a season-high 131 when the teams met in Week 7.

"Every time you are on the field you are learning something," Kaepernick said. "We just have to take what we can from this game and move on to next week."

San Francisco played without defensive tackle Justin Smith due to an elbow injury that ended a streak of 185 starts. The 49ers lost tight end Vernon Davis in the first quarter with a concussion sustained when he was knocked off his feet on a huge hit along the sideline from Seattle safety Kam Chancellor that looked legal but drew a penalty for hitting a defenseless receiver.

San Francisco wide receiver Mario Manningham went down with a left leg injury early in the third quarter when he was tackled low by Leroy Hill and fumbled.

The loss of Smith affected the entire defense. Aldon Smith was left stuck on 19 1-2 sacks after being locked up by Seattle offensive tackle Russell Okung.

"We can't make excuses," 49ers' safety Donte Whitner said. "We understand: We lost the football game; we lost an ugly football game."

NOTES: Lynch finished with 111 yards on 26 carries, his third straight game over 100 yards vs. the 49ers. ... Seattle was 11 of 13 on third-down conversions, a season-high. ... The 49ers were held to 82 yards rushing, just the third time this season he was held under 100 yards.

___

Online: http://pro32.ap.org/poll and http://twitter.com/AP_NFL

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Senators slam movie's torture scenes

In the new film "Zero Dark Thirty," Jessica Chastain plays a CIA analyst who is part of the team hunting Osama bin Laden.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Sens. Feinstein, McCain, Levin send letter calling new film "grossly inaccurate"


• Letter adds to controversy over depiction of torture as a key to finding bin Laden, Bergen says


• Senate committee has approved 6,000-page classified report on CIA interrogations program


• Bergen says as much as possible of that report should be released to the public

Editor's note: Peter Bergen is a CNN national security analyst and author of "Manhunt: The Ten-Year Search for bin Laden, from 9/11 to Abbottabad."

(CNN) -- On Wednesday, three senior U.S. senators sent Michael Lynton, the CEO of Sony Pictures, a letter about "Zero Dark Thirty," the much-discussed new movie about the hunt for Osama bin Laden, which described the film as "grossly inaccurate and misleading."

In the letter, Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Dianne Feinstein, D-California, Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin, D-Michigan, and Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, expressed their "deep disappointment" in the movie's depiction of CIA officers torturing prisoners, which "credits these detainees with providing critical lead information" about the courier who led the CIA to bin Laden's hiding place in northern Pakistan.

The senators point out that the filmmakers of "Zero Dark Thirty" open the movie with the words that it is "based on first-hand accounts of actual events." The film then goes on, the senators say, to give the clear implication "that the CIA's coercive interrogation techniques were effective in eliciting important information related to a courier for Usama Bin Laden."

Review: 'Zero Dark Thirty' is utterly gripping

Peter Bergen

The senators write that this is not supported by the facts: "We have reviewed CIA records and know that this is incorrect."

Last week, the Senate Intelligence Committee voted to sign off on the findings of its three-year study of the CIA's detention and interrogation program, during the course of which the committee's staff reviewed more than 6 million pages of records about the program.

Based on the findings of that review, Sens. Feinstein and Levin had released a statement eight months ago that said, "The CIA did not first learn about the existence of the Usama Bin Laden courier from CIA detainees subjected to coercive interrogation techniques. Nor did the CIA discover the courier's identity from detainees subjected to coercive techniques. ... Instead, the CIA learned of the existence of the courier, his true name and location through means unrelated to the CIA detention and interrogation program."

In their letter to Sony, the three senators write, "(W)ith the release of Zero Dark Thirty, the filmmakers and your production studio are perpetuating the myth that torture is effective. ... We believe that you have an obligation to state that the role of torture in the hunt for Usama Bin Laden is not based on the facts."

Requests from Sony Pictures for comment on the senators' letter yielded a response referring to a statement that the film's director Kathryn Bigelow and screenwriter Mark Boal had released last week:

"This was a 10-year intelligence operation brought to the screen in a two-and-a-half-hour film. We depicted a variety of controversial practices and intelligence methods that were used in the name of finding bin Laden. The film shows that no single method was necessarily responsible for solving the manhunt, nor can any single scene taken in isolation fairly capture the totality of efforts the film dramatizes. One thing is clear: the single greatest factor in finding the world's most dangerous man was the hard work and dedication of the intelligence professionals who spent years working on this global effort. We encourage people to see the film before characterizing it."

'Zero Dark Thirty' puts U.S. interrogation back in the spotlight

"Zero Dark Thirty" does indeed show many scenes of the various forms of sleuthing at the CIA that were necessary to track down al Qaeda's leader.

But the statement from the filmmakers does not address the fact that eight months ago, the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee had publicly said that based on an exhaustive investigation, there was no evidence that coercive interrogations helped lead to bin Laden's courier -- which is clearly what the film suggests, no matter what retrospective gloss the filmmakers now wish to apply to the issue.

Nor does the statement indicate if Sony plans to put a disclaimer at the beginning of "Zero Dark Thirty" explaining that the role of coercive interrogations in tracking down bin Laden that is shown in the film is not supported by the facts.

As I outlined in a piece on CNN.com 10 days ago assessing the role that coercive interrogations might have played in the hunt for bin Laden, about half an hour of the start of "Zero Dark Thirty" consists of scenes of a bloodied al Qaeda detainee strung to the ceiling with ropes who is beaten; forced to wear a dog collar while crawling around attached to a leash; stripped naked in the presence of a female CIA officer; blasted with heavy metal music so he is deprived of sleep; forced to endure multiple crude waterboardings; and locked into a coffin-like wooden crate.

These are the scenes that will linger with filmgoers, far more than the scene in the movie where two CIA analysts discuss what will prove to be a key lead to bin Laden that surfaces in an old file. Brutal interrogations, of course, make for a better movie than a discussion at the office.

It is only after systematic abuse by his CIA interrogators in "Zero Dark Thirty" that the al Qaeda detainee is tricked into believing that he has already given up key information, and he starts cooperating and tells them about a man known as Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti, who ultimately proves to be bin Laden's courier.

Acting CIA director Michael Morell, in a letter to CIA employees on Friday, took strong exception to this portrayal of how bin Laden was found:

"The film creates the strong impression that the enhanced interrogation techniques that were part of our former detention and interrogation program were the key to finding Bin Ladin. That impression is false. As we have said before, the truth is that multiple streams of intelligence led CIA analysts to conclude that Bin Ladin was hiding in Abbottabad. Some came from detainees subjected to enhanced techniques, but there were many other sources as well. "

"Zero Dark Thirty" opened Wednesday in New York and Los Angeles and will open nationwide in the second week in January.

Let's hope that the attention that "Zero Dark Thirty" has directed to the issue of what kind of intelligence was derived from the CIA's coercive interrogations will help to put pressure on the White House and the CIA to release to the public as much as possible of the presently classified 6,000-page report by the Senate Intelligence Committee that examines this issue.

_____________

Full disclosure: Along with other national security experts, as an unpaid adviser I screened an early cut of "Zero Dark Thirty." We advised that al Qaeda detainees held at secret CIA prison sites overseas were certainly abused, but they were not beaten to a pulp, as was presented in this early cut. Screenwriter Mark Boal told CNN as a result of this critique, some of the bloodier scenes were "toned down" in the final cut. I also saw this final cut of the film. Finally, HBO is making a theatrical release documentary which will be out in 2013 based on my book about the hunt for bin Laden entitled "Manhunt."

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Nick Cassavetes Sued For Allegedly Stiffing Twin Canadian Pop Duo on $300K Movie Loan

LOS ANGELES (TheWrap.com) – Nick Cassavetes, Canadian twins and incest – besides three phrases that you probably didn’t expect to read in the same sentence today, they’re also elements of a bizarre new lawsuit that hit the California court system this week.

In a lawsuit filed Tuesday in Los Angeles Superior Court, TwinSpin music – home to twin Canadian pop duo Carmen & Camille – claim that “The Notebook” director failed to pay back a $ 300,000 loan to help make the upcoming drama “Yellow.”

The complaint alleges that the writer-director backed out of an agreement to give the duo parts in the movie and to feature a song of theirs in the Sienna Miller-Ray Liotta film.

The film chronicles a woman who’s addicted to pain pills and is fired from her teaching job for engaging in sexual shenanigans on school grounds. Oh, and she also had a love affair with her brother at one point. According to the suit – which also includes TwinSpin manager John Thomas as a plaintiff – TwinSpin and Cassavetes entered into an agreement in September 2010, in which TwinSpin would loan Cassavetes $ 300,000 to start production on the film.

In return, the suit says, Cassavetes agreed to pay the loan back with interest – for a total of $ 345,000 – the next month. Cassavetes also agreed to cast the duo in speaking roles in the film, use a song of theirs on the soundtrack, and to give Thomas a producer’s credit, the complaint claims.

But the money never came, the suit says – and neither did the roles, the song and the credit, without which the loan never would have been given.

“But for these representations, Plaintiffs never would have entered into the Loan Agreement or otherwise granted the Loan,” the lawsuit reads. “Plaintiffs are informed and believe that Cassavetes never had any intention of casting ‘Carmen & Camille’ in the Picture, or featuring a song by ‘Carmen & Camille’ in the Picture, of providing the producer credit to plaintiff Thomas, or of repaying the loan on a timely basis.”

Cassavetes’ agent has not yet responded to misrepresentation request for comment.

Alleging breach of contract, breach of covenant of good faith and fair dealing, fraudulent misrepresentation and negligent misrepresentation, the suit is asking for damages of $ 500,000, the amount that the plaintiffs believe is currently owed to them by Cassavetes, with accruing interest.

(Pamela Chelin contributed to this report)

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China and India: The $10 Trillion Engine of Future U.S. Growth

My friend and colleague Michael J. Silverstein, writing in this space in late October, mentioned that the most dangerous thing about China is America’s misguided attitude toward the country. In short, we appear to be afraid of China’s success.

The U.S. has never before run from a challenge. This is the wrong time to start.

As Silverstein and his co-authors—Carol Liao, David Michael, and Abheek Singhi—point out in their new book, The $ 10 Trillion Prize, one of the reasons many Americans feel threatened by China is they don’t know a lot about the country. What they do “know,” by and large, is what they’ve been told by politicians and others who accuse China of stealing U.S. jobs.

Yes, many low-skill, low-wage U.S. jobs have moved elsewhere, in many cases to China. Yes, many low-cost, mass-produced products that used to be made here are now being made there, and in other low-cost countries, such as India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Thailand, and Vietnam. And, yes, many of those jobs will never come back.

But as China and the other developing countries grow, they also become potential customers for U.S. goods and services, from corn and soybeans to automobiles, commercial jetliners, heavy machinery, construction and farm equipment, and banking, investment, and insurance services, to name just a few.

It wasn’t that long ago that the prevailing American vision of the Middle Kingdom was that of millions of mindless peasants marching in automaton-like lockstep to the orders of the party bosses. They led lives of drudgery, on collective farms, toiling for mere survival. Everybody dressed like Chairman Mao. Dissent was met with tanks. And it wasn’t that long ago that that may have been accurate in some respects.

But China today, as Silverstein and his co-authors make clear, is a booming multiclass society with hundreds of millions of people who want nothing more than their own version of the American Dream: a nice home, a quality car, a good education for their children, appliances and conveniences, better health care, stylish clothes, more time for travel and leisure. In short: a better life for the next generation than the current generation enjoyed. The same is true in India.

The authors visited with and tell the stories of dozens of Chinese and Indian families and entrepreneurs who are striving for the same things Americans want—and for the first time in their lives, they have the money to get them.

My colleagues have calculated that between 2010 and 2020, Chinese and Indian consumers will spend some $ 64 trillion on goods and services. Chinese consumers will spend approximately $ 41.5 trillion, with annual expenditures reaching more than $ 6 trillion in 2020. Indians will spend $ 22.5 trillion, with annual spending hitting an estimated $ 3.6 trillion by 2020. Combined, they will be spending some $ 10 trillion per year by 2020—more than three times what they spent in 2010.

That’s what U.S. politicians and business leaders should be talking about: the promise of China and India as engines of future U.S. growth. That’s the prize the book is about.

China and India today show the kind of unbridled optimism that used to be the hallmark of America. Many Chinese and Indian entrepreneurs expect their companies to grow by factors of 10 over the next decade.

Rather than fear such growth, Americans should embrace it, wish them well, and make sure our businesses, farms, and factories are prepared to meet their needs.

Businessweek.com — Top News

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Global Family Trees: BMO Study Shows Canadians with Family and Investments Abroad Unfamiliar with Tax and Estate Laws

TORONTO, ONTARIO–(Marketwire – Dec 23, 2012) – With the holiday season now upon us, many Canadians have travelled abroad to visit family and friends. But while more than one-quarter (26 per cent) of Canadians have either family members or assets outside of Canada, a study by BMO Harris Private Banking found that more than one-third (36 per cent) of international asset holders are not familiar with the taxes and laws pertaining to wills that include assets or properties outside of Canada.

“Those fortunate enough to own assets or property outside of Canada – or those thinking about it – need to do their due diligence to ensure their estate will be settled as they have planned,” said Sara Plant, Vice President and National Director, BMO Harris Private Banking. “If your beneficiaries live abroad, it is critical to be aware of tax issues, inheritance laws and other legalities to avoid any potential issues with your estate plan.”

According to the study, one-in-five (19 per cent) Canadians have assets abroad, including:

• Vacation home/second property


• Bank account


• Investments


• Other real estate holdings


• Business holdings

Family abroad

Statistics Canada predicts that the Canadian population will grow 0.7 per cent in each of the next two years, with 82 per cent of that growth expected to come from immigration.

An increase in immigration could contribute to the proliferation of global families with relatives staying behind in home countries, noted Ms. Plant.

The BMO study found that 16 per cent of Canadians currently have family members living outside of Canada whom they have named or plan to name as beneficiaries in their will, including children, parents and other relatives.

“Today”s families are becoming much more global, with children heading to the United States or overseas for school and work, and many adults purchasing property for family vacations or retirement,” said Ms. Plant. “From an estate planning perspective, there are many important considerations that Canadians must keep in mind to ensure that their assets and property will be easily transferred to their beneficiaries down the road.”

Ms. Plant offers the following tips for Canadians for creating a will that incorporates global components:

• Seek Guidance Early: Be sure to obtain professional advice from lawyers and tax advisors – both in Canada and in the country where the assets are situated – before signing on the dotted line. Investigate the inheritance rules in that country to see how they may affect your estate and beneficiaries.

• Communicate: Have discussions with your immediate family about foreign holdings. This lets those who will be impacted by your passing know the plan and avoids surprises later on.

• Consider a Corporate Executor: Settling an estate can be complicated and require knowledge of tax, inheritance and family property laws. When global assets are included, one of the challenges is finding the best people to administer those assets at the time of need and protect the interests of beneficiaries. A corporate executor provides peace of mind knowing that the estate will be settled efficiently and impartially.

• Review Regularly: While it is a best practice to review your will every time you file taxes, most people revisit theirs every seven to 10 years. This typically occurs when there is a life change, new assets are purchased (whether held in Canada or abroad) or when there are additions to the family that might impact estate planning. Take that time to make sure your wishes are in place and to make any necessary amendments.

“You have built your wealth – why not safeguard your prosperity for the future?” added Ms. Plant. “All Canadians should have a well-structured estate plan that takes into account their beneficiaries” unique circumstances and any associated inheritance and tax implications. Having a corporate executor in place can help make the transfer of assets go smoothly.”

For more information on BMO Estate Planning: www.bmo.com/estate.

Get the latest BMO press releases via Twitter by following @BMOmedia.

The results cited in this release are from an online Pollara survey with a random sample of 1,004 Canadians 18 years of age and older, conducted between September 18th and September 24th, 2012. A probability sample of this size would yield results accurate to ± 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

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Wall Street Week Ahead: A lump of coal for "Fiscal Cliff-mas"

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street traders are going to have to pack their tablets and work computers in their holiday luggage after all.

A traditionally quiet week could become hellish for traders as politicians in Washington are likely to fall short of an agreement to deal with $600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts due to kick in early next year. Many economists forecast that this "fiscal cliff" will push the economy into recession.

Thursday's debacle in the U.S. House of Representatives, where Speaker John Boehner failed to secure passage of his own bill that was meant to pressure President Obama and Senate Democrats, only added to worry that the protracted budget talks will stretch into 2013.

Still, the market remains resilient. Friday's decline on Wall Street, triggered by Boehner's fiasco, was not enough to prevent the S&P 500 from posting its best week in four.

"The markets have been sort of taking this in stride," said Sandy Lincoln, chief market strategist at BMO Asset Management U.S. in Chicago, which has about $38 billion in assets under management.

"The markets still basically believe that something will be done," he said.

If something happens next week, it will come in a short time frame. Markets will be open for a half-day on Christmas Eve, when Congress will not be in session, and will close on Tuesday for Christmas. Wall Street will resume regular stock trading on Wednesday, but volume is expected to be light throughout the rest of the week with scores of market participants away on a holiday break.

For the week, the three major U.S. stock indexes posted gains, with the Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> up 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 <.spx> up 1.2 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> up 1.7 percent.

Stocks also have booked solid gains for the year so far, with just five trading sessions left in 2012: The Dow has advanced 8 percent, while the S&P 500 has climbed 13.7 percent and the Nasdaq has jumped 16 percent.

IT COULD GET A LITTLE CRAZY

Equity volumes are expected to fall sharply next week. Last year, daily volume on each of the last five trading days dropped on average by about 49 percent, compared with the rest of 2011 - to just over 4 billion shares a day exchanging hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT in the final five sessions of the year from a 2011 daily average of 7.9 billion.

If the trend repeats, low volumes could generate a spike in volatility as traders keep track of any advance in the cliff talks in Washington.

"I'm guessing it's going to be a low volume week. There's not a whole lot other than the fiscal cliff that is going to continue to take the headlines," said Joe Bell, senior equity analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research, in Cincinnati.

"A lot of people already have a foot out the door, and with the possibility of some market-moving news, you get the possibility of increased volatility."

Economic data would have to be way off the mark to move markets next week. But if the recent trend of better-than-expected economic data holds, stocks will have strong fundamental support that could prevent selling from getting overextended even as the fiscal cliff negotiations grind along.

Small and mid-cap stocks have outperformed their larger peers in the last couple of months, indicating a shift in investor sentiment toward the U.S. economy. The S&P MidCap 400 Index <.mid> overcame a technical level by confirming its close above 1,000 for a second week.

"We view the outperformance of the mid-caps and the break of that level as a strong sign for the overall market," Schaeffer's Bell said.

"Whenever you have flight to risk, it shows investors are beginning to have more of a risk appetite."

Evidence of that shift could be a spike in shares in the defense sector, expected to take a hit as defense spending is a key component of the budget talks.

The PHLX defense sector index <.dfx> hit a historic high on Thursday, and far outperformed the market on Friday with a dip of just 0.26 percent, while the three major U.S. stock indexes finished the day down about 1 percent.

Following a half-day on Wall Street on Monday ahead of the Christmas holiday, Wednesday will bring the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. It is expected to show a ninth-straight month of gains.

U.S. jobless claims on Thursday are seen roughly in line with the previous week's level, with the forecast at 360,000 new filings for unemployment insurance, compared with the previous week's 361,000.

(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. Questions or comments on this column can be emailed to: rodrigo.campos(at)thomsonreuters.com)

(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Additional reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Jan Paschal)

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Falcons top Lions 31-18 for home-field advantage

DETROIT (AP) — Matt Ryan got what he wanted.

Calvin Johnson was forced to settle for what he could get.

Ryan matched a career high with four touchdown passes, two to Roddy White, to help the Atlanta Falcons beat the Detroit Lions 31-18 Saturday night and earn home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

"It's great," Ryan said. "Our confidence is high and our experience — good and bad — has helped us. The key is to keep the focus where it's been."

In yet another loss, Johnson had a record-breaking night.

Johnson broke Jerry Rice's NFL single-season yards receiving mark of 1,848. After making the record-breaking catch in the fourth quarter, Johnson jogged over to the sideline and handed the football to his father.

"That was a very special moment," he said.

Johnson also became the only player with 100 yards receiving in eight straight games and the first with 10 receptions in four games in a row in league history. He had 11 receptions for 225 yards, giving him 1,892 this season.

"I've been an NFL fan my whole life, dating back to watching Johnny Unitas and Raymond Berry as a kid, and I've coached in this league for 19 years," Detroit coach Jim Schwartz said. "I've seen a lot of Hall of Famers, but I've never seen a better player than Calvin Johnson.

"He just broke a record set by Jerry Rice, who is arguably the best player in this history of this league."

The Falcons (13-2) pulled away with Ryan's fourth TD pass to wide-open tight end Michael Palmer in the fourth quarter and Matt Bryant's 20-yard field goal with 3:05 left that gave them a 15-point lead.

Ryan was 25 of 32 for 279 yards without a turnover.

The Falcons hope playing at home, potentially throughout the conference playoffs, helps them more than it did after the 2010 and 1980 seasons. The Falcons failed to win a game in either postseason, getting routed by Green Bay two years ago and blowing a double-digit, fourth-quarter lead to Dallas three decades ago.

Atlanta advanced to its only Super Bowl with a win at Minnesota after winning a franchise-record 14 games during the 1998 season.

The Falcons won't have much incentive to match that mark next week at home against Tampa Bay, when they'll have nothing to gain and something to lose if a key player or more gets hurt.

Detroit (4-11) has been relegated to playing for pride this month and that hasn't been going very well.

The Lions, whose seven-game losing streak is the longest skid in the league, haven't struggled this much since the laughingstock of a franchise became the league's first to go 0-16 in 2008.

The Falcons led 21-3 at halftime before letting the Lions pull within five points early in the fourth quarter.

Ryan dashed Detroit's comeback hopes.

Facing intense pressure, he converted a third down in Atlanta territory with a pass to White, picked on rookie cornerback Jonte Green by throwing to Jones to pick up more first downs and found Tony Gonzalez open to convert another third down to set up his fourth TD pass.

"We didn't play well in the third quarter," Atlanta coach Mike Smith said. "Matt made some big throws on that drive."

Stafford was clearly trying to get the ball to Johnson on the next drive and cornerback Asante Samuel figured that out, stepping in front of the receiver for an interception to set up Bryant's field goal.

Atlanta running back Michael Turner was tackled in the end zone, after Detroit turned the ball over on downs, to give the Lions two meaningless points.

Ryan went deep to White for the first score, connecting with him on a 44-yard TD strike with 5:50 left in the first quarter. Ryan threw a short pass to him early in the second quarter and the standout receiver did the rest on a 39-yard sprint down the sideline.

Ryan put his third TD pass where only Julio Jones could catch it a corner of the end zone, and he did on a 16-yard reception that put Atlanta up 21-3.

Detroit didn't give up, a game after being accused of doing just that in a 38-10 loss at Arizona.

Jason Hanson kicked a second field goal late in the first half to make it 21-6.

After Atlanta opened the second half with a three-and-out drive, Mikel Leshoure scored on a 1-yard run midway through the third quarter to pull the Lions with eight points.

Hanson's third field goal made it 21-16.

Stafford finished 37 of 56 for 443 yards with an interception and the Lions say he set an NFL record for the most yards passing in a game without throwing a TD pass.

Detroit dug a big hole because the Falcons scored two TDs off turnovers in the first half.

Defensive end Kroy Biermann forced running Leshoure to fumble, giving the Falcons the ball at their 31 and they took advantage. Ryan's perfectly lofted pass to White's fingertips converted a third-and-1 in a big way, putting the Falcons ahead.

The Lions responded with another drive into Atlanta territory, but stalled and had to settle for Hanson's 34-yard field goal in the final minute of the opening quarter to pull within four points.

Atlanta earned a double-digit lead on the ensuing drive.

Ryan threw a screen pass to his left to White, who got a great block from tight end Gonzalez, and the receiver raced untouched for a score that put the Falcons ahead 14-3.

White finished with eight receptions for 153 yards and two TDs. Jones had seven receptions for 71 yards and a score.

Ryan completed his first 12 attempts and, after his first incomplete pass, he converted a third-and-10 with an 11-yard toss to Jacquizz Rodgers. Two plays later, Ryan matched a season high with a third TD pass on the connection with Jones. Prior to the game, Ryan hadn't started a game with more than 10 consecutive completions, according to STATS LLC. He started 10 for 10 last month against Tampa Bay.

Johnson had three receptions for 70 yards in the first quarter, breaking Herman Moore's single-season franchise record for yards receiving.

By halftime, Johnson had 117 yards receiving. He had 100 yards receiving for an eighth straight game, breaking a record set by Charley Hennigan in 1961 and matched by Michael Irvin in 1995. It was Johnson's 11th game with 100 yards receiving this season, tying Irvin's NFL mark.

"Calvin is one of the best players in the game and I think everybody is a big fan of his," Ryan said. "He's one of the most genuinely nice people you could meet."

Stafford connected with Johnson on a short crossing route and the receiver did the rest, outrunning Falcons on a 49-yard gain. Fittingly, the Lions turned the ball over on the next snap in the latest lowlight in a season full of them.

The Lions, Falcons and fans at Ford Field in Detroit honored the victims of the shootings at Sandy Hook Elementary School before the game. Players had memorial decals on their helmets that read "S.H.E.S." in white on a black background, and Detroit's coaches wore pins with a similar design. There was also a moment of silence before the national anthem while the names and ages of each victim were shown on the videoboards. Twenty children and six adults were killed in the Dec. 14 shooting in Newtown, Conn. Adam Lanza killed his mother, shot students and staff, then killed himself.

NOTES: Stafford, in his fourth season, has 1,090 career completions to surpass Bobby Layne's franchise record of 1,074. Stafford is seven attempts away from surpassing the NFL's single-season mark of 691 set by Drew Bledsoe with New England in 1994. ... Backup Falcons CB Christopher Owens had a hamstring injury.

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Follow Larry Lage on Twitter: http://twitter.com/larrylage

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